Deterministic and Probabilistic Demands in Network Evolution

It has been over six years since 5G was first commercially launched worldwide. According to the GSA report published this April, 392 operators have launched 5G networks, with 95 offering SA services, and 35 investing in 5G-Advanced. A total of 4,256 5G devices has been announced. Although this is only around 15% of 4G devices, it is sufficient to support thriving 5G services and applications.

However, 5G operators still face challenges in improving monetization despite the  scale of the ecosystem. The key issue is the lack of killer applications that can fully utilize 5G capabilities. With the advent of the AI era, operators are expecting new services and applications to improve monetization in the near future. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the demands on network evolution.

Market Classification

Based on the 5G deployment progress, operators can be categorized into three stages: Beyond 5G, During 5G, and Pre 5G.

“Beyond 5G” refers to operators that have completed 5G deployment in major areas, with network coverage exceeding a predetermined threshold. “During 5G” refers to operators that have obtained 5G licenses and started 5G deployment. “Pre 5G” refers to operators that have not yet obtained 5G licenses and therefore have not started commercial deployment.

Understanding the concerns of operators at different stages enables us to better address their requirements and help them build their ideal networks.

Concerns of Operators

The three stages are not completely independent, and there is some overlap between adjacent stages. Operators at an earlier stage also need to consider priorities of later stages, although some of these may be less urgent.  

• Beyond 5G

Operators with nearly complete 5G networks focus on network monetization after making substantial investments. Most operate in mature markets, where subscriber penetration is already very high, leaving little room for subscriber growth except through FWA expansion. Monetization depends largely on increasing ARPU by introducing new services and enhanced experiences. Since must-have 5G mobile services are still very limited, improving user experience has become one of the most important ways for operators to increase ARPU. A number of operators have started to introduce experience-oriented packages tailored to different scenarios and services.

At the same time, operators are seeking to reduce OPEX, especially when network utilization has not yet reached its full potential. Energy efficiency is one of the key ways to reduce OPEX over the medium and long term. In addition, AI-enabled autonomous operations and maintenance are becoming increasingly important.

Once operators have achieved their 5G deployment goals, the evolution toward 5G-Advanced and, eventually, 6G will become the next priority. Technologies and features that improve network performance or support new services and scenarios are attracting the most attention. Consequently, technologies such as multi-carrier CA and MIMO, emerging use cases such as ISAC and NTN, and new applications such as XR, are being developed and deployed.

• During 5G

Operators in the During 5G stage are also concerned about the priorities mentioned above. However, their primary concern is accelerating 5G network deployment and rapidly attracting more 5G subscribers. Their technological concerns include spectrum strategies for LTE, NR, as well as DSS, 5G NSA/SA architectures, and coverage strategies for NR and anchors.

Methods to accelerate engineering, site deployment, or even site swap are considered high priorities. For example, smaller and lighter modules on towers are important because they reduce tower load in terms of space, weight, and wind load.

Low power consumption is another important consideration, mainly at the hardware level, as it determines whether power systems need significant changes by tower companies, which can increase deployment time and cost.

Subscriber strategy is also a key consideration at this stage. An aggressive 5G marketing strategy may lead to a poor user experience, especially during the initial phase of network deployment, while a conservative one may hinder 5G user acquisition. The design and appeal of 5G devices, services and packages will all have an impact on subscriber acquisition. The same principle applies to the network side, where parameter design for legacy and 5G networks is important. There is much more involved than simply switching on the 5G network.

• Pre 5G

More factors should be considered at this stage than in the other two stages. The first step is to develop a spectrum strategy based on local regulations and spectrum auction plans. A fundamental question must first be addressed: Is 5G necessary for this network. In most situations, the answer is yes, given the competitive pressure in the market. However, when 5G spectrum licenses or investment budgets are limited, operators have to consider how to reuse existing bands, modes or even networks. Such an approach is very challenging and short-term.

As operators prepare to deploy 5G, the focus will be on network modernization. Different 5G spectrum bands, such as 3.5 GHz, 2.6 GHz, or even 2.3 GHz, will require different network designs. Even for the selected band, different types of radio units, such as 64TR, 32TR, or 8TR, need to be considered for different scenarios and targets. In some cases, pre-installing radio units for a promising future 5G band is also a very cost-effective approach during modernization. That means 5G services can be launched through a software switch once the 5G license is granted.

If 5G deployment is still some time away, LTE modernization may be necessary to bridge the gap until 5G arrives. The use of multiple bands and MIMO solutions, whether for TDD or FDD bands, can be considered key approaches in the short term.

Deterministic and Probabilistic Demands

Based on an analysis of operators’ concerns at different stages of 5G deployment, some important demands can be identified. These demands can be classified as either deterministic or probabilistic.

Deterministic Demands

• Integrated and compact base stations

For rapid 5G deployment, base stations that support multiple bands, multiple modes, and multiple channels are essential. First, the upcoming 5G bands have to be supported. More importantly, almost all existing bands should be integrated into fewer units to reduce tower loading and make room for new 5G equipment. Meanwhile, these base stations should support multiple modes, including both current and future evolved modes. Furthermore, for coverage and capacity purposes, radio configurations ranging from 2TR, 4TR, and 8TR to 16TR, 32TR, 64TR, and even higher are increasingly required. A key capability is to integrate as many elements as possible while maintaining acceptable unit specifications.   

• Continuous performance improvement

Networking is not only about individual hardware units but also about scalable capabilities across thousands of units supporting multiple bands, modes, and channels.

The bands include sub-1 GHz FDD bands, sub-3 GHz FDD and TDD bands, and sub-6 GHz TDD bands. Different bands play different roles in the network, and the parameters and priorities designed for them would affect network performance and user experience.

The modes include 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G, and beyond, which are planned for different phases of network evolution. These generations are still too broad to distinguish the modes in today’s networks.

With voice technologies evolving from GSM and UMTS to CSFB, SRVCC, VoLTE, and VoNR, together with the introduction of IoT as well as NSA and SA architectures, network complexity has increased exponentially.

Deploying units with different channel configurations within a network also require significant expertise in network planning and optimization. Simply deploying units with more channels in dense urban or high-population-density regions is not always the optimal solution. A highly customized network with tailored design and optimization is required.

• Tools for better performance and less OPEX

Besides the network itself, tools are also essential. Basic tools such as EMS need not be emphasized, but additional tools for network optimization, user experience awareness, energy saving, and O&M automation are increasingly required.

Tools for network optimization and user experience awareness are mainly used to improve network performance, and also help reduce investment required for large-scale networks. Energy-saving and O&M tools with or without AI agents can significantly reduce OPEX. All these tools have become indispensable in today's networks.

Probabilistic Demands

• AI-oriented network capability

With the AI era approaching, deterministic trends are emerging, including the proliferation of AI agents, massive token consumption, physical AI, and many new services and applications. It is expected that the future network will need to support massive connections beyond traditional IoT, lower latency for real-time control, and a much higher uplink ratio than in current networks. Although these trends are deterministic, the specific demands may vary across different types of networks, and the timeline for these new network demands remains uncertain. Therefore, operators are advised to monitor the development of local AI-related businesses.

• Full connectivity anywhere and anytime

Anywhere, anytime connectivity has always been the ultimate goal of the telecom industry. With current technologies, it has become possible to achieve  “anytime” connectivity in many regions. However, achieving “anywhere” connectivity remains a challenge. With traditional terrestrial networks, there is still a huge gap in achieving nationwide coverage, let alone coverage of the entire surface of the Earth. That’s why the concept of non-terrestrial network (NTN) has been introduced. The scale and timeline of this demand are still being explored. Especially, due to the limited resources for this type of connectivity, potential business cooperation models will also be an important topic in the future.

Conclusion

At different stages of 5G deployment, operators have different concerns about their networks. These concerns will be translated into requirements for network construction and deployment. Deterministic demands are being addressed for near-term implementation, while probabilistic demands arising from predictable trends are important for medium- and long-term planning. As a leading vendor, ZTE always focuses on customer concerns, analyzes various network requirements, and strives to deliver optimal solutions to address these requirements.